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January 2008 - Posts - Ariel's Remote Data Center

January 2008 - Posts

"Live" Blogging : "Delivering Data Mining for the Masses"

Posted Jan 22 2008, 12:07 AM by Ariel Ben Horesh  

Hello guys,

Today I've participated on a one day seminar about Data Mining and BI for enterprises.

The day was part of a European tour of the one and only Rafal Lukawiecki, it's appear he is delivering this day almost every day now and each time at a different country, I was really impressed by that, the man doesn't rest and basically speaking he has high levels of energy during his show, sustaining the crowd during hard periods, and as important with a smile and a wicked sense of humor. I was not surprised to learn that he usually receives high scores at Tech-ed events, and I hope to see him once again in Tech-ed (It is a fact that his is the only lecture I remember from Tech-ed 02. I remember him struggling with some typo when he tried to present .Net at the first time :))

So, by the title of this day seminar you must realize that it's not a a sexy subject and it includes many theoretical aspects which are again sexy mainly for statisticians and Merkov chain lovers. Of course I generalize and although I'm far from having a Ph.d in probability I all together enjoyed and didn't lost a minute wandering off suffering from pre-lunch and post-lunch symptoms that you are all familiar with.

So Rafal didn't have an easy time, It's not WPF-UI presentation that you can put some spinning buttons and all the crowd go "wooooo...". Basicly speaking it's a niche, so most chances that you are not familiar with the subject and want to know what the noise is all about (if you are a tech guy), or you are a business-man drawn to promises of profit predictions, sales forecasts and more honey of that kind. OR you are an expert of neural networks and you analyze data from dawn till dusk. Not much of middle ground here, and it's an hard time pleasing both sides.

But it is a Tech show, so most of the crowd is tech oriented, still we got 3 different specializations, from IT guy, trough SQL professional, to Software developer. Rafal had lots of different guys to please, I belonging with the minority, a software developer and with no or little knowledge was pretty pleased, if Ohad the neural network expert from the crowd is somehow reading this, please state if you were pleased as well. My guess is and I even surprise myself here is YES, why is that? stay tuned for the detailed description of today's topics.

The day was structured wisely and the first half of the day was mainly slides and theoretical background necessary for understanding what the hell we are going to do on that subject.

Microsoft approach at this subject is in one line "Delivering Data Mining for the Masses" in other words people like me and you. "We" are no longer required to understand  thoroughly what is going beyond the scenes. And that is a good approach, for doing "little" data mining today it's not something that a small shop or business needs to spend lots of resources to do so.

Furthermore with the using of Excel as a visualization tool, it's enable much more consumers of the analyzed data. Basicly every Data Mining (DM) model we contemplate, an Excel user can consume and use, and that a nice deployment issue.

For me the most interesting aspect of the first half was understanding what are the scenarios we can use and implement the current tools today. Theoretically speaking, you can do everything but I wanted to know what can I do as a common people respecting this issue will do, which means without the ability of developing my own algorithms. I presume that most people will adhere to that, no need to be an expert use what you are given of the shelve and maximize it.

So after running over the process of Data mining for example CRISP-DM and familiarizing with concepts and terminology. After that  Rafal made a little tour of T-SQL like language called DMX which I admit didn't really understood it's overall strength.

So how do we cook some DM and churn some data say you? Well you probably wanna use BI project in Visual Studio to do so. A nice DSL implementation enable us to model our DM process, we specify a data source, declare the data we want to use and specify how the algorithm will relate to it, and over it specify an algorithm out of the several you got when using this product.

It is that easy.

Analyzing the results is not that easy, some misleading UI concepts doesn't help either but I guess we need to pay a little with the learning curve, it's a small price to pay for the abilities we do get.

So the second half day was running over various and interesting scenarios such as Profit prediction (What is the connection between number of children to buying stuff), finding anomalies, forecasting sales, understanding what products people buy and what is being bought together, why customers are leaving your business and many many more scenarios.

So for every scenario Rafal showed us how to implement an alghorithm and how to compare which are the best to use for every scenario, and little tricks to use so even one familiar with the tool learned new stuff I'm sure.

So Ohad the neural network expert learned here how to use the same algorthiems from his field expertie on a real life practical example with for every person wizard UI to complement with.

Furthermore IMHO the lecture main strength is that it's enabling you to think and inspire you for achieving innovative approaches for your own old data that you don't normally think of them.

Well I like talks that aspire me and motivate me for doing something new and creative.

I've left with a lots of ideas and I'm not the only one, my friend Dima who had accompany me left with that feeling as well.

I just can't end without ranting about something, Well, I lied, it is not live blogging, you caught me, but you can't blame me, there just wasn't WiFi Internet connection in the hall.

When talking with a Microsoft representative, first I got the first excuse : "We don't want people to work instead of hearing the lecture" fair enough by my side a woman set with cellular phone connected to the Internet for emails and nothing stopped her from answering her phone during the lecture, well emails are less noisy by half, and lack of Internet will not stop those who still wish to work.

Second excuse was more formidable "It is expansive", Actually it is fair, but Microsoft doesn't need to enable bandwidth for so much people, they need just enough for a few bloggers as myself to participate in our favorite sport, Live Blogging.

I think from this day on, every major event such as this, Microsoft need to consider this aspects, it is for their benefit as well.

No need for "Support the Blogger" campaign, right?

Ariel

Nostalgia and today.

Posted Jan 18 2008, 03:44 PM by Ariel Ben Horesh  

Delphi3

Is someone of my beloved readers lost an heart bit by seeing this splash image?

For me, it all began in 1999, I was about to finish high-school, and got a job at a company working in Delphi. All I knew is C (and a bit of VC++), and didn't really had a formal education except high-school.

So you realize, not only one need to get use to OOP but also the visual richness of Delphi.

Even due I had a hard starting point, I fell in love with Delphi almost immediately, the power, the easiness of harnessing it, it was thrilling.

Lucky for me after a few months I got drafted to the army, to a place developing Rad application in... you could have guessed... Delphi.

Anyway beside the fact that I'm really nostalgic, I can't easily throw anything, and I keep everything that reminds me of good times.

That me.

So why this sudden impulse to write about Delphi, you may ask? Hold on.

One of my favorite features in Delphi was the VCL (Visual Class Library), I've learned so much from Borland developers, it was the first time I've seen patterns in action, the first time I've seen how to implement QuickSort, and it was all under your fingers, lots of code just to serve and as a side product educate and guide you.

Delphi was very popular and IMHO kicked ass of VB at this time, but Delphi's future was uncertain and I've to admit a better predator was soon to prowl the field.

Soon enough I've switched to .Net. Well who can blame me, I was at home, almost everything was familiar and that is not by accident.

Why everything, .Net as it all except VCL, You just couldn't debug into the framework and see what is going on. The brilliant Reflector was a must but still it wasn't the full package.

Until today.

Ariel

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And now for something completely different, a plea for help.

Posted Jan 15 2008, 11:19 PM by Ariel Ben Horesh   Rating:

OK, this post has little or not at all connection to technology!

But it's good to surprise you sometime, and make your day a little less dull.

I'm inviting you in helping me decide which photos to send for a photo competition, organized by the American Alliance Institute.

The competition focuses at people and more to the point native American people.

I want to send 3 of my pictures to them, and I want you to help me choose them!

I choose 8 runners up for you to choose from.

How can you help me?

If you like them enough Just leave me a comment or an email telling me which are your favorite 3 and in what order.

All of my pictures are published here by flickr. Stop by and visit. :)

Photo 1 :

Children at Cusco's main plaza (Peru)

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Photo 2 : Child at Lake Titikaka (Peru)

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Photo 3 : Mother with child at Lake Titikaka (Peru)

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Photo 4 : Group leader in Manu reservation park (Peru)

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Photo 5 : Child in a boat at Manu reservation park (Peru)

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Photo 6 : A guy just having breakfast... (of worms!) (Manu reservation park (Peru))

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Photo 7 : Child at Lake titikaka (Peru)

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Photo 8 : Child at Lake titikaka (Peru)

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Thanks Alot

Ariel

Black (or more to the point, blue) day

Posted Jan 10 2008, 12:47 AM by Ariel Ben Horesh  

Arggh.

What can I say, my precious, my life, one of things that fills my world had let go of me, had betrayed me.

let me take you back to the beginning, not so long ago, yesterday I was sitting comfortably with my computer trying to get some work done, as an after thought I started to look into Ruby and IronRuby. It was sunny and the weather was nice, I listned how roads are being closed for Mr.Bush and was happy I postponed my consulting in Jerusalem for another day. it was really going to be a productive day.

All of the sudden my Vista freezes.

Nothing is responding, even the mouse got stuck. I've no choice but to hard shutdown my machine.

After that I was really surprised , astonished, I just couldn't believe it, my machine wouldn't boot.

A nasty blue screen was blocking all paths. Nothing worked : Safe mode, last configuration, nothing!

If you are interested on the grimy details it's excuse was registry corruption.

I pulled out all my tricks, nothing had persuaded it to work.

I read about Vista auto-fixing application, and for that I needed to boot from the original Vista disk, sounds promising right?

So if that wasn't enough my vista disk (legal don't you worrie about that) wouldn't boot, it just got me more crazy, I got to tell you my mood was foul.

I started downloading a fresh copy of vista DVD from MSDN and meanwhile tried to trick it into accepting my current disk.

Installed Nero on my laptop and tried to create a bootable disk from something.

I even got to DOS mode and tried to start my vista disk manually.

After a few hours of which I was upset on everyone, and I even forgot to eat! I got a working bootable dvd.

I don't know why I did had quite an high expectations about that auto-fix feature, Vista should be better than XP somewhere right? maybe it's right over here when you just need a rescue, vista will prevail! right? wrong.

Although it's nice and fancy it did nothing. it surrendered pretty quickly, it tried to rollback the registry issue, the log said it's ok at first, restart, blue screen, and now it was just enough smart to know it was failing and it did run out of ideas so you should sent the problem back to Microsoft. Great!

OK, last rescue, restore points.

I was perplexed to find out it didn't find any restore points to work with. How can it be? I was asking myself this all day. I'm sure I didn't turned off this feature and I'm sure I didn't erase them for some time now, and my system had been changed the other night for installing the new SP1 for office (it should have made a restore point right?).

So my anguish was great, I felt betrayed by whom I invested so much attention and care.

So I'm starting all over.

As a last note: check you registry for problems, apparently it's a known weakness of Vista, and check that your restore points are in place, you can never know, It was supposed to be a bright day.

Ariel

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Scrum and Fantasy

Posted Jan 07 2008, 12:41 AM by Ariel Ben Horesh  

Dear readers, Long time.

Anyway I'm really into Scrum nowadays,

I was introduced to it during the last year and I immediately got hooked, I implemented a few of the concepts in my team and made everyone use to slightly unusable "Scrum for TeamSystem" template in my organization.

But that is old news. Since then I joined Sela and following my plan to consult in Scrum I took a Scrum course with the one and only Danko and participated in a workshop called Agile Boot camp by Mr. Murin.

So I admit I see Scurm in every shadow and out of every corner.

I guess this is one of the phases you are going through to fully make use of Scrum.

 

Back in the year 2000, a friend of mine lent me a fantasy book of his. first I struggled with the English (This book is a pure example of how English is exalted from other languages especially the fairly new rediscovered Hebrew), the Author really make the words sing and go live (You should read how he describes food, really makes your mouth water).

After some time I struggled with something different the level of details. On the contrary from other "regular" books which have a few major characters and several secondary characters - This book spans over 7-10 major characters and tens of secondary characters.

Another unique characteristic of this book is that you can never know what will become of your favorite character, it's not an Hollywood movie,  when the good guys do mistakes they die just like the bad guys.

Apparently the book was part of a series of what was planned to be a trilogy.

Should I tell you we already got book 4 published and it appears the author has much more to tell then he planned in the beginning (Change is good?).

He now states that he thinks it should take him 7 books to complete all he has to say.

8 years has passed, I still don't know the end, furthermore nobody's except the author doesn't know the end (Please god, protect him from undesirable accidents and Alzheimer).

This is because he haven't yet finished the series.

During this time the author struggled with :

  1. A dead end approach and was needed to trace back and start all over again.
  2. He wrote to much so he cut the book in half and published only a part of what he intended.
  3. A lots of fans who kept nagging him when he will be finished.

Also this author had a status page in his site, which he updated his progress (Visibility).

One of them stated that the next book (No.5) will be ready by the start of 2007.

After this time has passed, he got to the point of "I call you, don't call me" and updated his status, that the book is not done, and he will stop updating the status until it will be ready.

A year has passed and we got a new status!

I quote :

"The problem with doing these updates is that each of them is an attempt to predict the future, and if there's one thing that I have proved beyond a doubt these last few years, it's that I'm very bad at predicting the future, especially when my own work is concerned. I suppose I incline too much toward optimism... "

Predict the future? (Gantt?) this sounds awfully familiar.

So Mr George RR Martin got himself a broken project.

And me? I want to know what is going to happened in the END! so get on and do some writing and release the god damn product but take your time we want it to be excellent.

It's fun to be the customer once in a while isn't it ?

Ariel

P.S You got so far and you want to know which series I'm talking about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire

http://www.amazon.com/Game-Thrones-Song-Fire-Book/dp/0553573403

and for last note I really recommend you reading this series!

724_throne

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